Serbia’s PM Aleksandar Vucic informed the nation on January 17th, 2016 after the session of the General Board of his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) that Serbia will face in the spring 2016 all three-level elections at the same time: the extraordinary parliamentary, the local and Vojvodina’s provincial.
The purpose of the extraordinary parliamentary elections, according to the PM, is to obtain a full mandate for his SNS until 2020 in order to finish all designed progressive reforms in the country which is on the “stable and safe road”. However, the fundamental question is: what is the stable and safe road of the present-day Serbia?
One can ask why A. Vucic opted for the extraordinary parliamentary elections if it is known that his party has controlling the parliament with an absolute majority in coalition with the Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) and there are no any serious tensions in the society or any significant opposition to his in fact personal and party’s authoritarian regime?
The answer can be only one and simple: it is de facto decision by the main sponsor and even establisher of the SNS – the US embassy in Belgrade. A decade ago, the party was suddenly established by two top ex-radicals: Aleksandar Vucic – a Secretary General and Tomislav Nikolic – a vice-president of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) which was in the 1990s in governmental and parliamentary coalition with Slobodan Miloševic’s SPS.
From that time up to now the party’s main political course is pro-western, with the cardinal aim for Serbia (without Kosovo) to become a full Member State of the European Union (EU) and of course of the NATO. The NATO’s membership is, however, not openly advocated for the only reason not to alienate the ethnic Serbs from Serbia (as a majority of population) from the western course of the party and now the government.
Nevertheless, it is quite clear that these two memberships have to go together and even that Serbia, like Macedonia or Montenegro, firstly has to join the NATO as the open doors for the EU’s membership. The practical problem for both the US and the EU administrations is that overwhelming majority of the ethnic Serbs from Serbia oppose Serbia’s membership to the NATO.
According to many investigations of the public opinion during the last decade, it is clear that absolute majority of Serbia’s citizens do not want to see their country as a NATO’s member and even more, they will not support the EU’s membership if the NATO’s membership is a necessary condition. It is also clear that recognition of Kosovo’s independence has to be a crucial political condition for Serbia’s EU’s membership that is scheduled by Brussels in 2020.
As the western client state of Serbia already started on December 14th, 2015 the final phase of the negotiations with the EU, the very practical problem for the western bosses of quasi Serbia’s independence is how to avoid national dissatisfaction and even possible revolution when Serbia will finally recognize Kosovo’s independence? Obviously, Washington decided to make as stronger as position of the SNS in the parliament after the new elections hoping that the party will form the government without making any parliamentary coalition. The hope is a real and realistic having in mind at least three fundamental facts:
- All Serbia’s mass media (excluding only part of the internet that is not making any serious influence to the electorate) is under a full Vucic’s control.
- The citizens of Serbia, including primarily the ethnic Serbs, are during the last 15 years of “democratic” regimes quite enough bombed by the pro-western media controlled by the governments and the NGO’s sector that the Uncle Sam can believe that their minds are already well prepared for the final decision to join the western train.
- The Russian factor in Serbia, due to such media situation and governmental-NGO’s anti-Russian propaganda, is already not serious obstacle for the realization of the crucial western political plans with this Balkan country (likewise with Macedonia and Montenegro).
Obviously, Russia was and is the only great global power which historically was and still is protecting the national interests of Serbia and the Serbs in general and for that reason for Washington, Berlin and Brussels is clear that the Russian influence in the region, but above all among the Serbs, has to be as much as minimized in order to totally transform Serbia and Republic of Srpska into their classical 19th century oversea political, economic and financial colonies as it was already done with all ex-Socialist Central European nations who joined both the EU and the NATO. The western long-term designs with the Serbs are, as well as, clear: to dismiss Republic of Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina and to separate territories of Vojvodina and Raška (Sandžak in Turkish) from the rest of Serbia. In this case, Serbia will have state territory as it was between the Berlin Congress (1878) and the Balkan Wars (1912-1913). Unfortunately, with such post-2000 Serbia’s governments and Russian not proper political activity in the region such scenario is quite possible.
The Uncle Sam is realistically expecting that coming Serbia’s extraordinary parliamentary elections are going to be won by its client Vucic’s SNS due to expected absence of approximately half of Serbia’s electorate and already enough pro-western and anti-Russian washed brains of the minority who will vote. In this case the SNS will form extremely stable government in the parliament with an absolute majority of the seats. The consequences are going to be drastic and even catastrophic for Serbia’s territorial integrity and national interest of the ethnic Serbs but for Russia as well, as the Russian influence in the region is going to be totally eliminated.
Finally, a great part of guiltiness for such situation is on the Russian side itself as Russia simply left the Serbs on the western mercy in 2003 when the Russian peace-keeping troops left both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo. It is not also understandable why Russia is not financing and politically supporting any serious pro-Russian political party or NGO in Serbia, or at least why such party and/or NGO (if exists) is not profoundly supported by Moscow as it is openly done by Washington, Brussels and Berlin with their own client political parties and NGO’s sector. Vucic’s SNS is currently the most successful western financed and sponsored story in Serbia and Moscow very well know that party’s official policy of “and Europe and Russia” is only a great bluff for the people’s masses especially at the time of electoral campaigns.
The SNS’s “stable and safe road” is a road to the NATO and the EU. But why Russia left Serbia to go on this road?
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of InSerbia.