BELGRADE – When the influence of the West on the Balkans fades out, there will be a new wave of unrest which will result in redrawing the borders as we know them today, writes Serbian daily “Blic”.
New refugee waves, such as those in the nineties, would again sweep the Balkans. Timothy Les, former head of the British Embassy in Banja Luka and director of the agency “New Europe”, which deals with the assessment of political risk in Eastern Europe, says this in his analysis.
Les says that the chaos will begin with the secession of the Republika Srpska, which will join Serbia through a referendum. According to him, such scenario will be strongly advocated by Russia, which will wholeheartedly accept the weakening of the West’s influence in the Balkans.
According to Les, this will start the domino effect. Croats from Bosnia would try to join the part of the territory on which they live to Croatia, which would help them in it with all of its power. Albanians in Macedonia will rebel and try to break off a good part of the country. Thus extended Albania would then merge with Kosovo, fulfilling the long-term goal of creating the “Greater Albania”.
Apocalyptic analysis of the British professor and diplomat does not stop at this. According to him, the pro-Serb population of Montenegro, which makes half of the population of the country, will seek merger with the now expanded Serbia. For all that, their chance for expanding the borders will seek Greece and Bulgaria, which would then seek the rest of the broken Macedonia, says Les.
Russia would use such an epilogue and strengthen its position in the Balkans, primarily because of the traditionally good relations with Orthodox countries, such as Serbia, Montenegro, Greece and even Bulgaria.
Rapid growth of Islamic extremism would cause a big problem, and would undoubtedly attract numerous jihadists from Saudi Arabia and similar countries, says Les. Having in mind the monstrous crimes committed by jihadists in the nineties, escalation of the violence in some parts of the Balkans would be inevitable. Such scenario would only inflame the growing Islamization of Europe, believes Les.
The EU and US would not recognize such a redrawing of the boundaries, and would certainly invest a lot of effort to prevent such outcome. However, says Les, the power of the West would now drop so low that there would not be much they would be able to do.
“Maybe the new Balkan order will not happen tomorrow, but as the power of the EU fades, the day of commencement of such conflicts is getting closer,” concludes British diplomat and professor.